Thoughts about the current housing bubble, in the Netherlands 2021.
Economy September 27, 2021
Well, some might call it prices increases or market is overheating, but the truth is that the whole messy situation is now a huge bubble, fueled by extremely cheap money and other conditions that are presented below.
First, the news as they appear in the press:
NL home prices up 18%; Biggest increase in 21 years
The overheating in the housing market will not come to an end yet. In August, owner-occupied homes became 17.8 percent more expensive than a year earlier, with which house prices rose even faster than in July. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), this is the largest price increase since September 2000
So 18% YoY and the biggest increase in 21 years. Of course, conditions are slightly different along different regions in the Netherlands, but if you can check this site for a random address, you will notice numbers as follows (for the last 7 years):
Most of the houses around doubled their WOZ value in the last 7 years, with a strong acceleration in the last 2-3 years. To be noted that this value is used for taxation purposes, but it doesn't reflect the selling price of a house on the market (that might be +10/15k euro more at least).
However, there are a couple of factors that lead to this whole bubbly situation:
Some of the reasons are also pointed out in the mentioned article, but unfortunately not enough voices are raising this concerns, since that will mean to trouble more ECByish waters than it's allowed:
Mortgage interest rates are also historically low and home buyers can borrow more from the bank. Low interest rates also make a house more interesting as an investment because bonds yield little.
So it's interesting to see how much longer this situation will keep on going, since no matter how easy the access to the money is, still some limits apply (borrowing upper limit, properties so expensive that most of the people cannot afford anymore no matter what, and so forth). A lot of families are also leveraged to the maximum, so any change in their income will have drastic consequences.
The bubble keeps going on for now. It only looks for the right pin to go bust.