It's been more than a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, on 24th February, and the war is still going on, with no real progress in sight, other than millions of civilians affected by the whole non-sense, hundreds of soldiers wounded or dead on both sides, and major material destruction of several Ukrainian cities. It's more like a sick chess play between the major powers involved, leaving somewhere in the middle, Ukraine.
Therefore, there are some peace discussion here and then. You can read about these in the news, sometimes with no result, sometimes with some hope. And president Zelenskyy is continuously addressing different world parliaments (like in Australia or Japan), and more recent, the Dutch parliament (the 14th nevertheless!). But this is where is getting a little bit off.
Before going into details, let's remind us again that there are some ongoing discussions with the Russian parts involving a cease of fire and withdrawn of the troops. Of course that is nothing decided at this moment, but there is at least some sort of progress and negotiations can continue. Basically Zelenskyy is touching major points expected by the Russians:
Ukraine is ready to declare neutrality, abandon its drive to join Nato and vow to not develop nuclear weapons if Russia withdraws troops and Kyiv receives security guarantees, President Volodymyr Zelensky said ahead of peace talks in Turkey this week.
source: https://www.ft.com/content/c5aa8066-715d-43dd-8a3c-b6907d839a36
So everything seems on track. But then Zelenskyy has some curious requests to the Dutch parliament:
Europe must stop all trade with Russia, Zelenskyy said. Close the European ports to Russian ships, he said. "Be prepared to stop using energy from Russia. So that you don't pay billions to the war"
"You are leaders in supporting us, but we need more weapons to chase out the occupier."
"Our EU membership depends on you," Zelenskyy said.
So, on one hand, he's willing to give something back to Russia, like guarantees that the Ukraine won't join NATO. But on the other hand, he's requesting more weapons to crush his negotiating party? He's openly asking that Europe should start an ALL WAR trade with Russia? What sort of diplomacy is this, I wonder?
But his wishes are kinda in unicorn land. Cutting off completely Russia is out of the question: Germany for example, cannot do that now, or in the next couple of years. They should be happy they're not starting to pay for gas in rubles. The Netherlands, even if it doesn't depend so much on Russian gas, cannot switch that fast and there is the question how long you're willing to sacrifice your national interests over a foreign nation. There is humanitarian help for sure, and there is money spent to help the fleeing people or the ones fighting in Ukraine. But Germany economy for example, won't go that way too far. Inflation is already a huge issue now in European Union, and for Germany, this reminds them of some really ugly days.
And as we can see these days, the economic war affects Russia, but affects in the same way (if not more) the Western World. Russians might better endure the created poverty than the Dutch people, for example. And Russia can still sell somewhere their oil and gas and minerals. India is fully dependent on them. China has good trade relationships with Russia, and although not a genuine friend, still not an enemy. In an ultra connected world, things are complicated.
More weapons? Probably, but there were already a lot of weapons sent to Ukraine. Asking for more, will not soften the peace negotiations. And, at some point, it raises the question what sort of army Ukraine has after all, since they're running so low on weapons after one month of conflict?
Zelenskyy tries to touch the hearts of his listeners with some sensitive topics, such as the MH17 flight.
... and the downing of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine. ‘That deed cannot be forgiven,’ he said. ‘Those who gave the order should be held to account.’
Well, this tragedy was not actually forgotten, and there are ongoing actions over it. Check here for the articles around this subject. But no specific relation is given, on how Ukraine winning the war will actually help this cause.
"World War II started with an attack on a few countries, then bombs on Rotterdam and London. The shadow of Rotterdam hangs over many European countries. Ukraine is just the beginning. Russia has been preparing for years.
Well, we can make all sort of assumptions, but Russia invading the whole Europe is a bridge way too far. Possible to happen (in a context where everything can happen), but highly unlikely. And that will degenerate to mutual self-destruction in no time. Today, Russia seems to have a hard time pushing further in Ukraine. Extremely hardly to believe they will invade another country after this (and basically starting an all war with NATO).
So Zelenskyy is doing his best to resist on one hand, and to negotiate on the other hand. But his style is messy at least. Playing on both ends will not help Ukraine too much. And since now it's for sure that Ukraine won't join NATO or European Union (if that matters at all), an agreement with Russia is the best they can get off the table. Otherwise, another Soviet Afghanistan war might be brewing.
The war cannot last another 36 days, he said.
For the all involved people, the war should stop tomorrow. And maybe Zelenskyy should realize that focusing on Russian negotiations is, at this point in time, more important than addressing different parliaments, asking for even more action against Russia. Putin might be crazy enough to sacrifice more soldiers, but Ukraine is sacrificed at whole if this continues.
